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Abstract AimEstablishments of non‐native forest pests (insects and pathogens) continue to increase worldwide with growing numbers of introductions and changes in invasion pathways. Quantifying spatio‐temporal patterns in establishment locations and subsequent invasion dynamics can provide insight into the underlying mechanisms driving invasions and assist biosecurity agencies with prioritizing areas for proactive surveillance and management. LocationUnited States of America. Time period1794–2018. Major taxa studiedInsecta, plant pathogens. MethodsUsing locations of first discovery and county‐level occurrence data for 101 non‐native pests across the contiguous USA, we (a) quantified spatial patterns in discovery points and county‐level species richness with spatial point process models and spatial hotspot analyses, respectively, and (b) identified potential proxies for propagule pressure (e.g., human population density) associated with these observed patterns. ResultsDiscovery points were highly aggregated in space and located in areas with high densities of ports and roads. Although concentrated in the north‐eastern USA, discovery points also occurred farther west and became less aggregated as time progressed. Invasion hotspots were more common in the north‐east. Geographic patterns of discovery points and hotspots varied substantially among pest origins (i.e., global region of pests’ native ranges) and pest feeding guilds. Significant variation in invasion richness was attributed to the patterns of first discovery locations. Data and shapefiles comprising analyses are provided. Main conclusionsUse of spatial point pattern analyses provided a quantitative characterization of the central role of human activities in establishment of non‐native pests. Moreover, the decreased aggregation of discovery points through time suggests that invasion pathways to certain areas in the USA have either been created or intensified by human activities. Overall, our results suggest that spatio‐temporal variability in the intensity of invasion pathways has resulted in marked geographic patterns of establishment and contributed to current macroscale patterns of pest invasion in the USA. 

Abstract Impact assessment is an important and cost‐effective tool for assisting in the identification and prioritization of invasive alien species. With the number of alien and invasive alien species expected to increase, reliance on impact assessment tools for the identification of species that pose the greatest threats will continue to grow. Given the importance of such assessments for management and resource allocation, it is critical to understand the uncertainty involved and what effect this may have on the outcome. Using an uncertainty typology and insects as a model taxon, we identified and classified the causes and types of uncertainty when performing impact assessments on alien species. We assessed 100 alien insect species across two rounds of assessments with each species independently assessed by two assessors. Agreement between assessors was relatively low for all three impact classification components (mechanism, severity, and confidence) after the first round of assessments. For the second round, we revised guidelines and gave assessors access to each other’s assessments which improved agreement by between 20% and 30% for impact mechanism, severity, and confidence. Of the 12 potential reasons for assessment discrepancies identified a priori, 11 were found to occur. The most frequent causes (and types) of uncertainty (i.e., differences between assessment outcomes for the same species) were as follows: incomplete information searches (systematic error), unclear mechanism and/or extent of impact (subjective judgment due to a lack of knowledge), and limitations of the assessment framework (context dependence). In response to these findings, we identify actions that may reduce uncertainty in the impact assessment process, particularly for assessing speciose taxa with diverse life histories such as Insects. Evidence of environmental impact was available for most insect species, and (of the non‐random original subset of species assessed) 14 of those with evidence were identified as high impact species (with either major or massive impact). Although uncertainty in risk assessment, including impact assessments, can never be eliminated, identifying, and communicating its cause and variety is a first step toward its reduction and a more reliable assessment outcome, regardless of the taxa being assessed.